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Machine Learning-Assisted Recurrence Prediction for Patients With Early-Stage Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer.

Adrianna Janik1, Maria Torrente2, Luca Costabello1

  • 1Accenture Labs, Dublin, Ireland.

JCO Clinical Cancer Informatics
|July 10, 2023
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Summary

Machine learning accurately predicts relapse in early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This approach personalizes patient care by estimating relapse probability, aiding treatment decisions for lung cancer patients.

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Area of Science:

  • Oncology
  • Biostatistics
  • Computer Science

Background:

  • Personalized cancer care relies on accurate relapse risk stratification.
  • Early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) requires precise prognostic tools.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the efficacy of machine learning models in estimating relapse probability for early-stage NSCLC patients.
  • To answer: How to use machine learning to estimate probability of relapse in patients with early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC)?

Main Methods:

  • Trained tabular and graph machine learning models on data from 1,387 early-stage NSCLC patients.
  • Employed SHapley Additive exPlanations for tabular model interpretability.
  • Utilized an example-based method to explain graph model predictions.

Main Results:

  • Random forest model achieved 76% accuracy in predicting relapse using tabular data (10-fold cross-validation).
  • Graph machine learning model reached 68% accuracy on a held-out test set.
  • SHAP values and example-based explanations provided insights into model predictions.

Conclusions:

  • Machine learning models offer objective, personalized, and reproducible relapse prediction for early-stage NSCLC.
  • The developed prognostic model shows potential as a decision support tool for adjuvant therapy selection.
  • Further validation with diverse data is recommended for clinical implementation.