Conversion Predictors of Clinically Isolated Syndrome to Multiple Sclerosis in Mexican Patients: A Prospective Study

Clinically Isolated Syndrome (CIS) is the first clinical episode suggestive of Clinical Definite Multiple Sclerosis (CDMS). There are no reports on possible predictors of conversion to CDMS in Mexican mestizo patients.

To investigate immunological markers, clinical and paraclinical findings, and the presence of herpesvirus DNA to predict the transition from CIS to CDMS in Mexican patients.

A single-center prospective cohort study was conducted with newly diagnosed patients with CIS in Mexico between 2006 and 2010. Clinical information, immunophenotype, serum cytokines, anti-myelin protein immunoglobulins, and herpes viral DNA were determined at the time of diagnosis.

273 patients diagnosed with CIS met the enrolment criteria; after 10 years of follow-up, 46% met the 2010 McDonald criteria for CDMS. Baseline parameters associated with conversion to CDMS were motor symptoms, multifocal syndromes, and alterations of somatosensory evoked potentials. The presence of at least one lesion on magnetic resonance imaging was the main factor associated with an increased risk of conversion to CDMS (RR 15.52, 95% CI 3.96-60.79, p = 0.000). Patients who converted to CDMS showed a significantly lower percentage of circulating regulatory T cells, cytotoxic T cells, and B cells, and the conversion to CDMS was associated with the presence of varicella-zoster virus and herpes simplex virus 1 DNA in cerebrospinal fluid and blood.

There is scarce evidence in Mexico regarding the demographic and clinical aspects of CIS and CDMS. This study shows several predictors of conversion to CDMS to be considered in Mexican patients with CIS.