Drug regulations and trafficking: Synthetic cannabinoids and cathinones in Hungary

In principle, new psychoactive substances (NPSs) are produced to circumvent drug regulations. However, the mixed success of regulatory efforts suggests that the dynamics of marketing is incompletely understood. To address this issue, we conducted a comprehensive study on the marketing of all synthetic cannabinoids and cathinones present in Hungary over ten years. Market evaluation was based on drug seizure data and chemical analyses provided by the Hungarian Institute for Forensic Sciences. Over ten years, 18 synthetic cannabinoids and 11 cathinones were identified. Total seizure counts were 22,906 and 10,273, respectively. When new synthetic cannabinoids emerged, seizures increased exponentially, but rapidly declined after their banning. In parallel, new synthetic cannabinoids emerged on the market. The systematic monitoring of local legislation allowed large sales between market introduction and legal control. Cathinones were also marketed in successive waves, but trading intensity was not associated with local regulations. Sales remained low throughout, likely because the risks involved by the temporal mismatch between marketing and legal control. One can hypothesize that marketing was driven by general trends in EU regulations or by measures taken by large countries. Our findings imply the existence of two different strategies for NPS marketing. The choice between the two may depend on multiple factors from the availability of skills required by rapid marketing adjustments to cost/benefit evaluations for various market segments. Studying NPS market strategies in neighboring and distant EU countries may help analyzing and predicting market events.