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Risk Stratification for Herpes Simplex Virus Pneumonia Using Elastic Net Penalized Cox Proportional Hazard Algorithm
Yu-Chiang Wang1,2, Wan-Ying Lin3, Yi-Ju Tseng4,5
1Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
Journal of Clinical Medicine
|July 14, 2023
Summary
A new risk model accurately predicts mortality in critically ill patients with Herpes simplex virus (HSV) pneumonia. This tool aids early identification of high-risk individuals for timely, aggressive treatment, improving outcomes in HSV pneumonia cases.
Area of Science:
- Critical Care Medicine
- Infectious Diseases
- Computational Biology
Background:
- Herpes simplex virus (HSV) pneumonia is a severe, often fatal infection in immunocompromised patients.
- Accurate risk stratification is crucial for timely intervention and improved survival rates.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a predictive model for mortality in patients with HSV bronchopneumonia.
- To compare the model's performance against the established APACHE II score.
Main Methods:
- Utilized an elastic net penalized Cox proportional hazard algorithm.
- Analyzed data from 104 critically ill patients with HSV bronchopneumonia.
- Included 109 clinical and laboratory predictors for model development.
Main Results:
- The developed model accurately predicted mortality in HSV bronchopneumonia patients.
- The model demonstrated superior predictive capability compared to the APACHE II score in early ICU stages.
- Hazard ratio coefficients and selection frequency enhanced predictor explainability.
Conclusions:
- The elastic net penalized Cox proportional hazard algorithm is effective for HSV bronchopneumonia risk stratification.
- This model can identify high-risk patients, guiding aggressive treatment strategies.
- The findings support the clinical utility of this novel risk stratification tool.
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