Digital infrastructure construction, carbon total factor productivity, and carbon rebound effect

Area of Science:

• Environmental Economics
• Urban Studies
• Sustainable Development

Background:

• Digital infrastructure construction (DIC) and low-carbon transformation are key drivers of economic development.
• Understanding their synergistic relationship is crucial for sustainable economic growth.
• The impact of DIC on environmental metrics like carbon productivity and emissions requires detailed investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the nonlinear impact of digital infrastructure construction (DIC) on carbon total factor productivity (CTFP).
• To analyze the effect of DIC on the carbon rebound effect (CRE).
• To identify the mediating roles of energy consumption structure, industrial structure, and technological innovation in the DIC-CTFP relationship.

Main Methods:

• Econometric model system applied to panel data.
• Analysis of data from 279 Chinese cities spanning 2007-2019.
• Robustness tests to validate findings on the nonlinear relationships.

Main Results:

• A U-shaped nonlinear relationship was found between DIC and CTFP.
• DIC exhibits a U-shaped connection with energy consumption structure optimization, with energy reduction being the primary driver for CTFP.
• A U-shaped nonlinear connection exists between DIC and CRE, indicating that energy savings and emission reductions lag behind expectations in later stages of DIC.

Conclusions:

• Digital infrastructure construction's impact on carbon productivity and emissions is complex and nonlinear.
• Current DIC strategies, often characterized by episodic expansion, limit the potential for significant carbon reduction and may exacerbate the carbon rebound effect.
• Policy interventions should focus on optimizing energy consumption and potentially refining DIC strategies to achieve better environmental outcomes and decouple economic growth from carbon emissions.