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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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Impact-based seasonal rainfall forecasting to trigger early action for droughts.

Tim Busker1, Hans de Moel1, Bart van den Hurk2

  • 1Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

The Science of the Total Environment
|July 16, 2023
PubMed
Summary

Early drought action in the Horn of Africa is crucial. Seasonal forecasts, like ECMWF SEAS5, show economic value for triggering interventions before drought impacts, especially for the October-November-December season.

Keywords:
Anticipatory actionDrought impactDrought risk managementDrylandsEarly warningHumanitarian aid

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Meteorology
  • Agricultural Economics

Background:

  • The Horn of Africa faces severe drought due to consecutive failed rainy seasons, impacting millions and livestock.
  • Existing drought research prioritizes forecasting over actionable early warning systems.
  • There's a critical need to optimize early action strategies for drought mitigation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the potential for early drought action using seasonal weather forecasts.
  • To assess the economic value of early warning systems for drought in Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia.
  • To evaluate the utility of the ECMWF SEAS5 system for drought preparedness.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized seasonal rainfall forecasts from the ECMWF SEAS5 system for MAM and OND seasons.
  • Correlated forecast data with drought surveillance data from 21 Kenyan counties.
  • Calculated the Potential Economic Value (PEV) of forecasts for triggering early actions.

Main Results:

  • SEAS5 seasonal rainfall forecasts accurately reflect on-the-ground drought impacts.
  • Short-lead-time OND forecasts for Kenya and Somalia show substantial economic value (PEVmax up to 0.8).
  • Forecasts with longer lead times (1-2 months) retain significant, though reduced, economic benefits.

Conclusions:

  • Seasonal forecasts offer significant potential for triggering effective early drought actions, particularly for the OND season.
  • Disseminating the economic value of early actions alongside forecasts is essential for user adoption.
  • This research supports proactive drought management and resilience-building in vulnerable regions.