Development and validation of a nomogram for difficult laryngoscopy at visual laryngoscopy: a prospective nested case-control study

Unsuccessful airway management is associated with increased perioperative morbidity and mortality. Difficult laryngoscopy is a leading cause of unanticipated difficult airways and presents a challenge for anesthesiologists. Airway ultrasound assessment can be used as a priority diagnostic strategy for difficult laryngoscopy because of its diagnostic performance in difficult airways. This study was designed to develop a comprehensive model based on multivariate statistical analysis (including bedside examination tests and ultrasonography) for difficult laryngoscopy.

This study was conducted from December 27, 2021, to September 16, 2022. All patients underwent an airway ultrasonographic measurement with a standard operating procedure. The baseline characteristics and bedside examination tests were also recorded. Laryngoscopy with a Cormack-Lehane (CL) grade of 1-2 was defined as "easy laryngoscopy", whereas "difficult laryngoscopy" was based on a CL grade of 3-4. The prediction model was built by using baseline characteristics, bedside examination tests, and ultrasonographic measurements as independent variables and easy/difficult laryngoscopy as the dependent variable.

A total of 516 patients were eligible, and 456 patients were finally enrolled in the study. A 4-variable analysis, including inter-incisor gap (IIG), thyromental distance (TMD), the distance from the skin to the tongue root, and airway-related diseases, was performed to construct the optimum prediction model. The area under curve (AUC) value of the prediction model was 0.933 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.770 to 0.935] in the training set and 0.956 (95% CI: 0.915 to 0.997) in the validation set.

The comprehensive model and nomogram, especially the integration of tongue root thickness, can predict the risk of difficult laryngoscopy more accurately and reliably than any other screening method alone, allowing for reasonable individualized regimen decision-making.