Predicting overall performance in Ironman 70.3 age group triathletes through split disciplines

Area of Science:

• Sports Science and Physiology
• Endurance Sports Analysis
• Triathlon Performance Metrics

Background:

• Understanding discipline contribution is key for optimal race pacing in triathlons.
• Previous research identified running as decisive in Olympic distance and cycling in full-distance Ironman triathlons.
• The most critical discipline for Ironman 70.3 has not been established.

Purpose of the Study:

• To determine the most crucial discipline influencing overall performance in age group Ironman 70.3 triathletes.
• To analyze performance trends and gender-based differences across age groups in Ironman 70.3 races.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of 823,459 athlete performances from 787 Ironman 70.3 races (2004-2020).
• Inclusion of athletes aged 18 to 75+ from 240 countries, categorized into 5-year age groups.
• Statistical methods included correlation analysis, multiple linear regression, and two-way ANOVA (p < 0.05).

Main Results:

• Regression analysis showed no significant difference in the contribution of swimming, cycling, or running splits to overall race time.
• Correlation analysis indicated stronger associations between overall race time and cycling/running splits compared to swimming.
• A smaller performance gap between male and female swimmers was observed in age groups 50 years and older.

Conclusions:

• Running and cycling disciplines are more predictive of overall performance than swimming for age group Ironman 70.3 triathletes.
• Coaches and athletes can leverage this data to refine race pacing strategies for Ironman 70.3 events.
• The narrowing performance gap in swimming for older age groups suggests potential for improved female participation and performance.