Predicting overall performance in Ironman 70.3 age group triathletes through split disciplines

Knowing which discipline contributes most to a triathlon performance is important to plan race pacing properly. To date, we know that the running split is the most decisive discipline in the Olympic distance triathlon, and the cycling split is the most important discipline in the full-distance Ironman^® triathlon. However, we have no knowledge of the Ironman^® 70.3. This study intended to determine the most crucial discipline in age group athletes competing from 2004 to 2020 in a total of 787 Ironman^® 70.3 races. A total of 823,459 athletes (198,066 women and 625,393 men) from 240 different countries were analyzed and recorded in 5-year age groups, from 18 to 75 + years. Correlation analysis, multiple linear regression, and two-way ANOVA were applied, considering p < 0.05. No differences in the regression analysis between the contributions of the swimming, cycling, and running splits could be found for all age groups. However, the correlation analysis showed stronger associations of the cycling and running split times than the swimming split times with overall race times and a smaller difference in swimming performance between males and females in age groups 50 years and older. For age group triathletes competing in Ironman^® 70.3, running and cycling were more predictive than swimming for overall race performance. There was a progressive reduction in the performance gap between men and women aged 50 years and older. This information may aid triathletes and coaches in planning their race tactics in an Ironman^® 70.3 race.