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Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach
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Large-deviation theory of increasing returns.

Simone Franchini1, Riccardo Balzan1

  • 1Sapienza Universitá di Roma, Piazza A. Moro 1, 00185 Roma, Italy.

Physical Review. E
|July 19, 2023
PubMed
Summary

This study analyzes a generalized market model with increasing returns, revealing sublinear entropy costs in expected lock-in phases. We identify the most likely market share trajectories and a nonlinear differential equation for market dynamics.

Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Mathematical Economics
  • Statistical Physics

Background:

  • The increasing returns theory explains market lock-in with competing products.
  • Arthur's model shows one product becomes a monopoly with a majority mechanism.
  • Existing models lack analysis of probabilistic customer choices.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze a generalized model of market competition with probabilistic customer choices.
  • To investigate market share dynamics and identify likely trajectories.
  • To explore the behavior of the system in regions of expected lock-in.

Main Methods:

  • Large-deviation analysis at the sample-path level.
  • Derivation of a formula for most likely market share trajectories.

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  • Analysis of a nonlinear differential equation for the cumulant-generating function.
  • Main Results:

    • Identified a region of sublinear entropy cost where lock-in is expected.
    • Derived a formula to determine the most probable market share evolution.
    • Established a nonlinear differential equation governing market share dynamics.

    Conclusions:

    • The generalized model exhibits complex dynamics beyond simple lock-in.
    • Probabilistic customer behavior can lead to unexpected convergence patterns.
    • The study provides tools for analyzing market share fluctuations and stability.