Accounting for temporal variability in functional magnetic resonance imaging improves prediction of intelligence

Neuroimaging-based prediction methods for intelligence have seen a rapid development. Among different neuroimaging modalities, prediction using functional connectivity (FC) has shown great promise. Most literature has focused on prediction using static FC, with limited investigations on the merits of such analysis compared to prediction using dynamic FC or region-level functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) times series that encode temporal variability. To account for the temporal dynamics in fMRI, we propose a bi-directional long short-term memory (bi-LSTM) approach that incorporates feature selection mechanism. The proposed pipeline is implemented via an efficient algorithm and applied for predicting intelligence using region-level time series and dynamic FC. We compare the prediction performance using different fMRI features acquired from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study involving nearly 7000 individuals. Our detailed analysis illustrates the consistently inferior performance of static FC compared to region-level time series or dynamic FC for single and combined rest and task fMRI experiments. The joint analysis of task and rest fMRI leads to improved intelligence prediction under all models compared to using fMRI from only one experiment. In addition, the proposed bi-LSTM pipeline based on region-level time series identifies several shared and differential important brain regions across fMRI experiments that drive intelligence prediction. A test-retest analysis of the selected regions shows strong reliability across cross-validation folds. Given the large sample size of ABCD study, our results provide strong evidence that superior prediction of intelligence can be achieved by accounting for temporal variations in fMRI.