Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jul 23, 2025

Author Spotlight: A Pseudotype Virus System for Assessing Omicron Subvariants and Neutralizing Antibodies in SARS-CoV-2 Research
Published on: September 8, 2023
Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach
Alexandra B Hogan1,2, Patrick Doohan2, Sean L Wu3
1School of Population Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Abstract:
With the ongoing evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus updated vaccines may be needed. We fitted a model linking immunity levels and protection to vaccine effectiveness data from England for three vaccines (Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222, Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2, Moderna mRNA-1273) and two variants (Delta, Omicron). Our model reproduces the observed sustained protection against hospitalisation and death from the Omicron variant over the first six months following dose 3 with the ancestral vaccines but projects a gradual waning to moderate protection after 1 year. Switching the fourth dose to a variant-matched vaccine against Omicron BA.1/2 is projected to prevent nearly twice as many hospitalisations and deaths over a 1-year period compared to administering the ancestral vaccine. This result is sensitive to the degree to which immunogenicity data can be used to predict vaccine effectiveness and uncertainty regarding the impact that infection-induced immunity (not captured here) may play in modifying future vaccine effectiveness.
Related Concept Videos
Analysis Methods of Pharmacokinetic Data: Model and Model-Independent Approaches
The model approach uses mathematical models to describe changes in drug concentration over time. Pharmacokinetic models help characterize drug behavior in patients, predict drug concentration in the body fluids, calculate optimum dosage regimens, and evaluate the risk of toxicity. However, ensuring that the model fits the experimental data accurately...
Pharmacokinetic Models: Comparison and Selection Criterion
Physiological models take a detailed approach by considering specific molecular processes. They can predict drug distribution, metabolism, and elimination changes, providing a comprehensive understanding of how drugs interact with the body.
Model Approaches for Pharmacokinetic Data: Physiological Models
Model Approaches for Pharmacokinetic Data: Distributed Parameter Models
The distributed parameter models are specifically designed to account for variations and differences in some drug classes. This model is particularly useful for assessing regional concentrations of anticancer or...
Pharmacokinetic Models: Overview
There are three primary types of models: empirical, compartment, and physiological. Empirical models, with minimal...
Model Approaches for Pharmacokinetic Data: Compartment Models
Two primary types of compartment models are recognized: mammillary and catenary. The more...

