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Life tables are versatile across various fields, providing a quantitative basis for analyzing mortality and survival rates. Whether used by demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists, or sociologists, life tables offer valuable insights into the dynamics of life and death, facilitating informed decisions in public health, insurance, conservation, and beyond. Their broad applicability highlights the interconnectedness of demographic data with practical outcomes in everyday life and strategic...
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Forecasting Total Fertility Rates For Urban And Rural Areas In Pakistan With A Coherent Functional Model.

Hira Fatima Waseem1, Farah Yasmeen1

  • 1Department of Statistics, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan.

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Summary

Pakistan

Keywords:
Fertility, Forecast, Urban Population, Rural population, Age-specific fertility rates, Women.

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Population Studies
  • Statistical Modeling

Background:

  • Fertility rates are crucial indicators of population dynamics.
  • Understanding urban-rural fertility differentials is essential for policy-making in Pakistan.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project total fertility rates (TFR) for Pakistan's urban and rural areas up to 2027.
  • To compare the predictive accuracy of two statistical models for fertility forecasting.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized publicly available data from the Pakistan Demographic Survey (1984-2007).
  • Applied functional time series and coherent functional models for age-specific fertility rate predictions.
  • Evaluated model performance using error measures in R (version 3.6.3).

Main Results:

  • The coherent functional model projected a 2027 TFR of 1.7 births/woman in urban areas and 2.2 births/woman in rural areas.
  • The functional time series model projected a 2027 TFR of 2.1 births/woman in urban areas and 2.7 births/woman in rural areas.
  • The coherent functional model demonstrated superior forecasting accuracy for both urban and rural TFR.

Conclusions:

  • Both models provide insights into future fertility trends in Pakistan.
  • The coherent functional model is recommended for more accurate TFR projections in urban and rural Pakistan.