A time series analysis of milk productivity in US dairy states

As US dairy cow production evolves, it is important to characterize trends and seasonal patterns to project amounts and fluctuations in milk and milk components by states or regions. Hence, this study aimed to (1) quantify historical trends and seasonal patterns of milk and milk components production associated with calving date by parities and states; (2) classify parities and states with similar trends and seasonal patterns into clusters; and (3) summarize the general pattern for each cluster for further application in simulation models. Our data set contained 9.18 million lactation records from 5.61 million Holstein cows distributed in 17 states during the period January 2006 to December 2016. Each record included a cow's total milk, fat, and protein yield during a lactation. We used time series decomposition to obtain each state's annual trend and seasonal pattern in milk productivity for each parity. Then, we classified states and parities with agglomerative hierarchical clustering into groups according to 2 methods: (1) dynamic time warping on the original time series and (2) Euclidean distance on extracted features of trend and seasonality from the decomposition. Results showed distinguishable trends and seasonality for all states and lactation numbers for all response variables. The clusters and cluster centroid pattern showed a general upward trend for all yields [energy-corrected milk (ECM), milk, fat, and protein] and a steady trend for fat and protein percent for all states except Texas. We also found a larger seasonality amplitude for all yields (ECM, milk, fat, and protein) from higher lactation numbers and a similar amplitude for fat and protein percent across lactation numbers. The results could be used for advising management decisions according to farm productivity goals. Furthermore, the trend and seasonality patterns could be used to adjust the production level in a specific state, year, and season for farm simulations to accurately project milk and milk components production.