Integrated drought vulnerability and risk assessment for future scenarios: An indicator based analysis

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Socioeconomic Studies
• Environmental Risk Assessment

Background:

• Climate change and socioeconomic development dynamically alter global drought hazard, vulnerability, and risk.
• Understanding future drought impacts in a globalized economy under warming is limited.

Purpose of the Study:

• To map and assess changes in global drought vulnerability and population risk by the 2030s and 2050s.
• To analyze these changes under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) and emission scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Utilized historical and projected climatic, geographical, and socioeconomic data.
• Employed advanced modeling to assess changes in drought hazard, vulnerability, and population risk.
• Mapped global drought risk across different regions and scenarios.

Main Results:

• Population at risk of drought projected to increase by 21.96%–25.95% (2030s) and 36.64%–45.40% (2050s).
• Drought hazard increases across 58% of global land; vulnerability decreases in 50%–80% of areas.
• Arid/semi-arid regions (Africa, Central Asia, Australia) face heightened risks, especially under high emissions.

Conclusions:

• Future drought impacts will be significant, driven by population growth and changing hazard/vulnerability dynamics.
• Regional disparities in drought risk are evident, with arid regions most vulnerable.
• Findings support developing targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies for global warming and economic globalization.