Upcycling rice yield trial data using a weather-driven crop growth model

Efficient plant breeding plays a significant role in increasing crop yields and attaining food security under climate change. Screening new cultivars through yield trials in multi-environments has improved crop yields, but the accumulated data from these trials has not been effectively upcycled. We propose a simple method that quantifies cultivar-specific productivity characteristics using two regression coefficients: yield-ability (β) and yield-plasticity (α). The recorded yields of each cultivar are expressed as a unique linear regression in response to the theoretical potential yield (Y_p) calculated by a weather-driven crop growth model, called as the "YpCGM method". We apply this to 72510 independent datasets from yield trials of rice that used 237 cultivars measured at 110 locations in Japan over 38 years. The YpCGM method can upcycle accumulated yield data for use in genetic-gain analysis and genome-wide-association studies to guide future breeding programs for developing new cultivars suitable for the world's changing climate.