How medical professionals evaluate expressions of probability

Area of Science:

• Medical Communication
• Clinical Decision Making
• Health Informatics

Background:

• Qualitative probability expressions (e.g., "likely") have subjective numerical interpretations.
• This ambiguity can cause misunderstandings between healthcare providers and patients.
• Standardizing these terms is crucial for effective medical discourse.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the quantitative meaning of common qualitative probability expressions used in medicine.
• To assess the degree of agreement on these meanings among different medical professional groups.
• To explore the potential for codifying these expressions to improve communication.

Main Methods:

• A nationwide interactive computer network was utilized for data collection.
• Three groups of medical professionals (physicians, medical students, other professionals) assigned percentage values to 12 probability expressions.
• Data were analyzed to determine median and mean values and compare them across groups and with previous studies.

Main Results:

• Median percentage values assigned to expressions were consistent across physicians, medical students, and other professionals.
• Quantification of 7 expressions showed similar ordering compared to an earlier study, despite different numerical values.
• Significant variation exists across multiple studies and individual opinions, highlighting the need for standardization.

Conclusions:

• There is a notable degree of agreement among medical professionals regarding the quantitative meaning of qualitative probability expressions.
• The findings support the feasibility of codifying these expressions to enhance clarity.
• The presented average numerical values can be immediately applied to improve communication in healthcare settings.