Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe

Area of Science:

• Climatology
• Meteorology
• Environmental Science

Background:

• European windstorms cause significant socioeconomic losses.
• Future projections of these losses face uncertainties related to storm characteristics and socioeconomic scenarios.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project future socioeconomic losses from European windstorms under various climate and socioeconomic scenarios.
• To quantify the impact of increased storm severity and population changes on future losses.

Main Methods:

• Utilized two storm severity indices applied to extratropical cyclone footprints.
• Employed a multi-model ensemble of climate models under different future socioeconomic scenarios.
• Assessed adaptation measures using future damage thresholds.

Main Results:

• Projected increases in storm frequency across northern and central Europe.
• A more than twofold increase in meteorological storm severity.
• A threefold increase in population-weighted storm severity due to population growth.
• Adaptation measures partially offset increased severity but do not eliminate risk.
• Lower emissions scenarios significantly reduce future risk.

Conclusions:

• Future European windstorms pose a growing socioeconomic risk, amplified by climate change and population increases.
• Adaptation strategies can mitigate some impacts, but emission reductions are crucial for substantial risk reduction.
• Policy decisions regarding emissions significantly influence the magnitude of future windstorm-related losses.