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Predicting cardiovascular risk in a Chinese primary Sjögren's syndrome population: development and assessment of a

Jincheng Pu1, Jiamin Song1, Shengnan Pan1

  • 1Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, Tongji Hospital, School of Medicine, Tongji University, Shanghai, China.

Therapeutic Advances in Chronic Disease
|July 24, 2023
PubMed

Insights

Patients with primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS) face higher cardiovascular risks. A new nomogram identifies key risk factors like joint pain, dry mouth, and elevated TSH, aiding in early cardiovascular event prediction and treatment guidance.

Area of Science:

  • Rheumatology
  • Cardiology
  • Medical Informatics

Background:

  • Primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS) patients exhibit increased cardiovascular morbidity compared to the general population.
  • Identifying specific risk factors for cardiovascular events in pSS is crucial for proactive management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify potential risk factors for cardiovascular events in Chinese patients with pSS.
  • To develop and validate a predictive cardiovascular risk nomogram for pSS patients.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective observational study of 349 pSS patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2022.
  • Utilized Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) for feature selection.
  • Developed a multivariate logistic regression model, validated using C-index, ROC curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis.

Main Results:

  • A nomogram was developed incorporating sex, joint pain, dry mouth, oral ulcers, dental caries, Raynaud's phenomenon, fatigue, diabetes, elevated TSH, and systolic blood pressure.
  • The model demonstrated good discrimination (C-index: 0.824) and calibration (internal validation C-index: 0.8).
  • Decision curve analysis confirmed clinical utility for interventions at a 3% cardiovascular disease probability threshold.

Conclusions:

  • A validated cardiovascular risk nomogram can predict cardiovascular risk in pSS patients.
  • The nomogram, including identified clinical and laboratory factors, can guide further treatment strategies for pSS patients.
Abstract

Keywords:
cardiovascular eventsnomogrampredictive modelprimary Sjögren’s syndromerisk

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