Local rainfall forecast knowledge across the globe used for agricultural decision-making

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Meteorology
• Ethnoscience

Background:

• Weather and climate significantly impact agriculture, posing risks to farmers.
• Scientific weather forecasts (SFK) have limitations in accessibility, especially in the Global South.
• Farmers often rely on local forecast knowledge (LFK) for decision-making.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify and map the global spatial distribution of local forecast knowledge (LFK) use in agriculture.
• To understand the reasons behind farmers' reliance on LFK over SFK.
• To highlight the need for improved accessibility and documentation of LFK.

Main Methods:

• Systematic literature review to identify and document LFK indicators and their spatial distribution.
• Analysis of reported local environmental indicators used in weather prediction.

Main Results:

• A significant number of LFK regions and approximately 1350 local environmental indicators were identified, predominantly in Africa and Asia.
• Limited usability and accessibility of SFK are key drivers for LFK adoption.
• Animal and meteorology-based indicators are more common in LFK than plant- or astronomy-based ones.

Conclusions:

• LFK is a crucial component of agricultural weather forecasting, particularly where SFK is inaccessible.
• Improving the digitalization and accessibility of LFK is essential for integrating it with scientific forecasting systems.
• Further research and documentation of LFK can enhance its value and application in agriculture.