Revealing Trade Potential for Reversing Regional Freshwater Boundary Exceedance

Applying the planetary boundary for the freshwater framework at the regional level is important in supporting local water management but is subject to substantial uncertainty. Previous estimates have not fully investigated the potential of trade in mitigating regional freshwater boundary (RFB) exceedance. Here, we estimate RFB based on the average results of 15 different hydrological models to reduce uncertainty. We then propose a framework to divide the RFB exceedance/maintenance into contributions from both consumption and trade and further identify trade contribution into six types. We applied the framework to China's provinces, which are characterized by intensive interprovincial trade and a significant mismatch in water resource supply and demand. We found that the current trade pattern limits the role of trade to mitigate RFB exceedance. For the importing provinces exceeding RFBs, 78% of their imported goods and services came from other RFB exceeding provinces. Scenario analysis showed that relying on increased imports alone, even to its greatest extent, will not reverse RFB exceedance in most importing provinces. Increased imports, however, will have an aggregate effect on the trade partners, leading to the exceedance of the national freshwater boundary. We also found that promoting export of goods and services from non-RFB exceeding provinces and reducing their water intensity will help address the imbalance both locally and, in the aggregate, nationally.