Complete response rates in rectal cancer: Temporal changes over a decade in a population-based nationwide cohort

In the past decade many changes in neoadjuvant treatment for patients with rectal cancer have taken place and are expected to impact complete response rates. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact on pathological, and overall, complete response rates in a nationwide population-based cohort, in relation to changes in neoadjuvant treatment and the start of a Watch & Wait (WoW) study.

A nationwide register study using prospectively collected data from the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Register between 2009 and 2020. Patients with rectal cancer stage I-III with a ypT0N0 in the resected specimen after neoadjuvant treatment and clinical complete responders from the yearly inclusion data of the national WoW study were included. Temporal changes in pathological and overall complete response rates were analysed, and differences in neoadjuvant treatment regimens over time and per region were studied.

Between 2009 and 2020 the pathological complete response rate for rectal cancer remained similar (Mann-Kendall tau of 0.091, p = 0.68) while the overall complete response rate increased significantly from 3.0% to 9.6% (Mann-Kendall tau of 0.818, p < 0.001). The pathological complete response rate for patients receiving short course radiotherapy followed by chemotherapy was reduced by 50% after the introduction of the WoW study.

During the studied time period the overall complete response rate increased significantly presumably due to changes in national neoadjuvant treatment regimens. Since the start of the national WoW study clinical complete response seem to partly replace pathological complete response.