Excess mortality in 22 European countries in 2020 and 2021: relationship with socioeconomic indicators

For better understanding of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in different countries, we studied the excess mortality from any cause during 2020 and 2021 in 22 European countries, and its relationship with three socioeconomic variables: life expectancy at birth in 2019, per capita income, and low education level.

Using an ecological design, we analyzed excess mortality data between January 2020 and December 2021 in 22 European countries, obtained from the EuroMOMO surveillance system. Using weekly Z-score data for each country, we estimated the annual average deviation in mortality during 2020 and 2021 for each country. We analyzed possible relationships between the excess mortality and three independent variables: gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) in 2020, life expectancy at birth in 2019, and proportion of the population over age 18 years with a lower than secondary education level in 2018.

In the 22 European countries analyzed, the total number of excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 was 800,011 (11%) more than expected, with deaths among those aged 65 years and over accounting for 87.66% of these. Excess mortality was higher in 2020, especially in Spain, UK, Italy, and France. In 2021, excess mortality was highest in Hungary, the Netherlands, France, and Germany. Excess mortality during 2021 was inversely correlated with life expectancy (r =-.489, p = .021) and income level (r =-.550, p = .008).

Reducing socioeconomic inequalities among countries not only improves conditions of most disadvantages but also will help to reduce excess of mortality from future pandemics.