Time-travelling pathogens and their risk to ecological communities

Area of Science:

• Microbiology
• Ecology
• Artificial Life

Background:

• Permafrost thaw releases ancient microorganisms, posing potential biological invasion risks to modern ecosystems and human health.
• The establishment and impact of these ancient, 'time-travelling' pathogens in contemporary communities remain poorly understood due to limited data.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the ecological risks associated with ancient virus-like pathogens invading modern artificial life communities.
• To assess the impact of these simulated invasions on the diversity and composition of host bacterial communities.

Main Methods:

• Digital virus-like pathogens were isolated from simulated ancient coevolved artificial life communities.
• Simulated invasions of these ancient pathogens into future states of the artificial host communities were conducted.
• The effects on host community diversity were compared to control groups (no invasion and contemporary pathogen invasion).

Main Results:

• Invading ancient pathogens frequently survived and evolved within the simulated host communities.
• In a small percentage of cases (3.1%), invaders became exceptionally dominant.
• While often having negligible effects, invaders unpredictably caused significant losses or gains in host species richness in 1.1% of simulations.

Conclusions:

• Ancient microorganisms released by permafrost thaw represent a tangible, albeit unpredictable, ecological threat.
• Even rare outbreak events from these ancient invaders can significantly alter microbial community structure and diversity.
• These findings suggest that 'time-travelling' pathogens could be potent, underestimated drivers of ecological change.