Study on the spatial spillover effect of land use type change on carbon emissions

Land use change affects the terrestrial carbon cycle, a crucial factor in attaining energy conservation and emission reduction under climate change. This study constructs panel data for thirteen Hangzhou districts and municipalities from 2000 to 2020. Using the spatial Durbin model, it analyzes the spatial spillover effect of land use change on carbon emissions. The results show that the spatial distribution of carbon emissions in Hangzhou continues to increase with positive spatial autocorrelation, and the spatial distribution shows "high-high" and "low-low" clustering. The expansion of construction land is the main reason for the increase in carbon emissions, and the inhibitory effect of water area on carbon emissions is more potent than woodland. The area of cultivated land and construction land has a positive spillover effect on carbon emissions, while the woodland area has a negative spillover effect on carbon emissions. To promote urban low-carbon development, maximizing the spatial spillover effect of land use and establishing a collaborative governance system between districts and counties is crucial.