Toward a Benchmark for Markov State Models: The Folding of HP35

Adopting a 300 μs long MD trajectory of the folding of villin headpiece (HP35) by D. E. Shaw Research, we recently constructed a Markov state model (MSM) based on inter-residue contacts. The model reproduces the folding time and predicts that the native basin and unfolded region consist of metastable substates that are structurally well-characterized. Recognizing the need to establish well-defined benchmark problems, we study to what extent and in what sense this MSM can be employed as a reference model. Hence, we test the robustness of the MSM by comparing it to models that use alternative combinations of features, dimensionality reduction methods, and clustering schemes. The study suggests some main characteristics of the folding of HP35 that should be reproduced by other competitive models. Moreover, the discussion reveals which parts of the MSM workflow matter most for the considered problem and illustrates the promises and pitfalls of state-based models for the interpretation of biomolecular simulations.