Risk Stratification to Guide Prevention and Control Strategies for Arboviruses Transmitted by Aedes aegypti

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Spatial Analysis

Background:

• Traditional arboviral disease prevention relies on Aedes aegypti vector control, often lacking documented efficacy, coverage, and sustainability.
• Urbanization trends exacerbate Aedes aegypti proliferation, increasing infection risk and resource demands for control.
• Identifying recurrent arboviral case clusters is crucial for prioritizing interventions and optimizing resource allocation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate spatial patterns of dengue incidence in Tartagal, Argentina, between 2010 and 2020.
• To assess the overlap of dengue and chikungunya hotspots.
• To evaluate the predictive value of historical hotspots for future outbreaks.

Main Methods:

• Spatial analysis of dengue case data from 2010–2020 in Tartagal, Argentina.
• Identification of urban areas with concentrated arboviral cases (hotspots).
• Comparison of dengue and chikungunya hotspot overlap during the 2016 outbreak.
• Geolocalization of 2022 cases within previously identified hotspots.

Main Results:

• Approximately 50.8% of dengue cases occurred in 35.9% of the urban area during 2010–2020.
• Significant overlap was observed between dengue and chikungunya hotspots in 2016 (Kendall's W = 0.92, p < 0.001).
• A substantial proportion (65.9%) of 2022 cases were located within the 2010–2020 identified hotspot areas.

Conclusions:

• Spatial analysis reveals persistent dengue clustering in Tartagal, highlighting the limitations of traditional vector control.
• Identified hotspots serve as reliable predictors for future arboviral disease outbreaks, including chikungunya.
• Developing risk maps based on these hotspots enables targeted, resource-efficient preventive strategies to reduce vulnerability.