A Radiomics-Based Classifier for the Progression of Oropharyngeal Cancer Treated with Definitive Radiotherapy

In this study, we investigated whether radiomics features from pre-treatment positron emission tomography (PET) images could be used to predict disease progression in patients with HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer treated with definitive proton or x-ray radiotherapy. Machine learning models were built using a dataset from Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota (n = 72) and tested on a dataset from Mayo Clinic, Phoenix, Arizona (n = 22). A total of 71 clinical and radiomics features were considered. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to identify the top 2 clinical and top 20 radiomics features that were significantly different between progression and progression-free patients. Two dimensionality reduction methods were used to define two feature sets (manually filtered or machine-driven). A forward feature selection scheme was conducted on each feature set to build models of increased complexity (number of input features from 1 to 6) and evaluate model robustness and overfitting. The machine-driven features had superior performance and were less prone to overfitting compared to the manually filtered features. The four-variable Gaussian Naïve Bayes model using the 'Radiation Type' clinical feature and three machine-driven features achieved a training accuracy of 79% and testing accuracy of 77%. These results demonstrate that radiomics features can provide risk stratification beyond HPV-status to formulate individualized treatment and follow-up strategies.