Expenditure projections for community home-based care services for older adults with functional decline in China

Difficulty in identifying the functional status of older adults creates an imbalance between the supply and demand for community home-based care. Using a multi-level functional classification system to guide care cost measurement may optimize care resources and meet diverse eldercare demands.

The Markov model was used to project the older population size in different functional decline (FD) statuses. The project cost and the man-hour costing method were combined to forecast the cost of community home-based care for older adults with FD.

The projected cost of eldercare increased from 1668.623 billion yuan in 2020 to 2836.754 billion yuan in 2035. By 2035, the total cost for community-based home care for those in pathological development of FD statuses such as "viability disorder," "acute disease," "somatic functional disorder," and "sub-disorder" was projected to be 1094.591 billion, 433.855 billion, 1256.236 billion, and 52.072 billion yuan, respectively, which is 1.24, 1.58, 1.78, and 0.49 times higher than the results by the man-hour costing method. Family caregiving costs are about three times those of professional caregivers.

The escalating cost of providing graded care for older adults, particularly by family caregivers, presenting a significant evidence for the need to optimize resource allocation and develop a robust human resources plan for community home-based care.