A global investment case for hepatitis B elimination: a modelling study

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Health Economics
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Hepatitis B causes significant global mortality, with WHO aiming for elimination by 2030.
• Progress is hindered by funding gaps and underestimation of the disease's economic impact.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model the costs and benefits of achieving hepatitis B elimination targets (90% vaccination, 90% diagnosis, 80% treatment).
• To assess the economic burden of hepatitis B mortality and the returns on investment for elimination strategies.

Main Methods:

• A dynamic mathematical model simulating hepatitis B transmission, disease progression, and mortality across six WHO regions.
• Estimation of costs and benefits for achieving elimination targets by 2030, 2040, or 2050.

Main Results:

• Without increased intervention, hepatitis B mortality costs $784.35 billion in lost productivity (2022-50).
• Achieving 2030 targets averts 25.64 million infections and 8.63 million deaths.
• The strategy is cost-saving from a societal perspective, yielding $99.03 billion net economic benefit by 2050.

Conclusions:

• Hepatitis B represents a substantial, underappreciated economic burden.
• Investment in hepatitis B elimination strategies offers significant health and economic returns.
• Delayed achievement of intervention targets diminishes both health and economic benefits.