Geo-hazards assessment and land suitability estimation for spatial planning using multi-criteria analysis

The fundamentals contribution of multi-hazard assessment lies in its ability to guide and identify directions for territorial development, aiming to reduce vulnerability through the implementation of appropriate measures. In the present study, Multi-Criteria Decision Making supported by Geographic Information System was utilized to solve spatial problems related to territorial sprawl. Considering this perspective, an analysis was conducted on the susceptibility of land to the occurrence of geo hazards in the Moldova catchment, situated in the northeastern region of Romania, within a transitional zone between mountains and plateaus. The analysis focused on assessing the likelihood of geo-hazards like floods, landslides, and earthquakes, utilizing the weights obtained through the implementation of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Subsequently, the obtained results were utilized to generate a multi-hazard map, which facilitated the identification of areas that are suitable for territorial development. The results were validated in two ways: by sensitivity analysis in which two minimum and maximum scenarios were proposed concerning the result obtained and by validation using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve method. The areas with high susceptibility to geo-hazards triggers are located in the southeastern part of the region, in the proximity of the hydrographic network. Flood risk is the hazard with the highest recurrence. Localities with high suitability for spatial development have a central-western distribution. According to the applied model, sites for each locality included in the study area can be identified. The high and very high suitability classes account for 54% of the total area, while the unsuitable classes represent 15% of the area. However, the vulnerability of the area and the need for the study are generated by 35% of the settlements being located in areas with high susceptibility.