The Relationship between Concealed Carry Licenses and Firearm Homicide in the US: A Reciprocal County-Level Analysis

This study investigates the reciprocal county-level relationship between the number of concealed carry weapon (CCW) licenses issued and homicides between 2010 and 2019 in a sample of eleven states. We utilize a random intercept cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM) approach accounting for reciprocal effects over time between homicide and concealed carry licenses, providing a robust methodological approach to the study of concealed carry and homicide. The results of the RI-CLPM found that increases in the number of CCWs in 2010-2017 were statistically associated with increases in total gun homicide in 2011-2018. Reciprocally, we found some limited evidence that increases in gun homicide were associated with changes in the number of CCWs issued in subsequent years during the early part of our study period. Far from concealed carry making people safer, our model finds acute safety risks associated with expansion of legal firearm carrying. As the right to carry firearms expands in many states, we emphasize the importance of responsible gun ownership practices, and draw attention to the need to implement preventive laws that keep guns out of the hands of people with prior violent histories and from places where violence risk is amplified.