Quantitative PCR analysis of bloodstains of different ages

An accurate method to estimate the age of a stain or the time since deposition (TsD) would represent an important tool in police investigations for evaluating the true relevance of a stain. In this study, two laboratories reproduced an mRNA-based method for TsD estimation published by another group. The qPCR-based assay includes four transcripts (B2M, LGALS2, CLC, and S100A12) and showed preferential degradation of the 5' end over the 3' end. In this study, the blood-specific marker ALAS2 was added to examine whether it would show the same degradation pattern. Based on our qPCR data several elastic net models with different penalty combinations were created, using training data from the two laboratories separately and combined. Each model was then used to estimate the age of bloodstains from two independent test sets each laboratory had prepared. The elastic net model built on both datasets with training samples up to 320 days old displayed the best prediction performance across all test samples (MAD=18.9 days). There was a substantial difference in the prediction performance for the two laboratories: Restricting TsD to up to 100 days for test data, one laboratory obtained an MAD of 2.0 days when trained on its own data, whereas the other laboratory obtained an MAD of 15 days.