Temperature and salinity trends in the northern limit of the Canary Current Upwelling System

Thermohaline time series are crucial for detecting and quantifying abiotic changes in the marine environment, and even more so in the present global change scenario. This is particularly relevant for the Ría the Vigo and its adjacent shelf, a highly productive ecosystem at the northern limit of the Canary Current Upwelling System (CanCUS). This study analyses a 34-year time series (1987-2020) of Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD) casts, the longest series available to date in the region. Long-term trends, shifts, and seasonal variability of temperature and salinity were assessed and investigated in relation to regional meteorological variability and basin-scale atmospheric teleconnection indices. Generalized Additive Models (GAM) allowed us to determine that monthly thermohaline variability can be largely explained by regional meteo-climatic variability, mainly upwelling index and river discharge. Trends and shifts in some teleconnection patterns, especially the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, may also be related to both the shift in salinity in 2013 and its long-term decrease below 50 m depth. Despite the current global warming context, no statistically significant trend was observed for either the upwelling index or temperature. The spatial analysis of sea surface temperature trends suggests that our study area has been responding to climate change differently from other surrounding near-shore areas, as the Finisterre Cape or the southern Bay of Biscay. Overall, this study highlights the importance of long-term observations to elucidate the impact of climate change in the northern limit of the CanCUS and encourages caution when extrapolating conclusions from ecosystem studies on a regional scale.