Development and validation of a 21-gene prognostic signature in neuroblastoma

Survival outcomes for patients with neuroblastoma vary markedly and reliable prognostic markers and risk stratification tools are lacking. We sought to identify and validate a transcriptomic signature capable of predicting risk of mortality in patients with neuroblastoma. The TARGET NBL dataset (n = 243) was used to develop the model and two independent cohorts, E-MTAB-179 (n = 478) and GSE85047 (n = 240) were used as validation sets. EFS was the primary outcome and OS was the secondary outcome of interest for all analysis. We identified a 21-gene signature capable of stratifying neuroblastoma patients into high and low risk groups in the E-MTAB-179 (HR 5.87 [3.83-9.01], p < 0.0001, 5 year AUC 0.827) and GSE85047 (HR 3.74 [2.36-5.92], p < 0.0001, 5 year AUC 0.815) validation cohorts. Moreover, the signature remained independent of known clinicopathological variables, and remained prognostic within clinically important subgroups. Further, the signature was effectively incorporated into a risk model with clinicopathological variables to improve prognostic performance across validation cohorts (Pooled Validation HR 6.93 [4.89-9.83], p < 0.0001, 5 year AUC 0.839). Similar prognostic utility was also demonstrated with OS. The identified signature is a robust independent predictor of EFS and OS outcomes in neuroblastoma patients and can be combined with clinically utilized clinicopathological variables to improve prognostic performance.