Identifying the patient harms to include in an in silico clinical trial

Clinical trials represent a crucial step in the development and approval of medical devices. These trials involve evaluating the safety and efficacy of the device in a controlled setting with human subjects. However, traditional clinical trials can be expensive, time-consuming, and ethically challenging. Augmenting clinical trials with data from computer simulations, so called in silico clinical trials (ISCT), has the potential to address these challenges while satisfying regulatory requirements. However, determination of the patient harms in scope of an ISCT is necessary to ensure all harms are sufficiently addressed while maximizing the utility of the ISCT. This topic is currently lacking guidance. The objective of this work is to propose a general method to determine which patient harms should be included in an ISCT for a regulatory submission.

The proposed method considers the risk associated with the harm, the impact of the device on the likelihood of occurrence of the harm and the technical feasibility of evaluating the harm via ISCT. Consideration of the risk associated with the harm provides maximum clinical impact of the ISCT, in terms of focusing on those failure modes which are most relevant to the patient population. Consideration of the impact of the device on a particular harm, and the technical feasibility of modeling a particular harm supports that the technical effort is devoted to a problem that (1) is relevant to the device in question, and (2) can be solved with contemporary modeling techniques.

As a case study, the proposed method is applied to a total shoulder replacement humeral system. With this framework, it is hoped that a consistent approach to scoping an ISCT can be adopted, supporting investment in ISCT by the industry, enabling consistent review of the ISCT approach across device disciplines by regulators, and providing maximum impact of modeling technologies in support of devices to improve patient outcomes.