Trends in cardiovascular burden and mortality among adults with prediabetes in the US, 1999-2018

Trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and mortality have been reported among US adults with diabetes, but not among those with prediabetes. This study aimed to examine and compare the trends in CVD risk factors and mortality in US adults with diabetes and prediabetes.

In this serial, cross-sectional study, medical records of prediabetic patients from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) among adults aged 18 years or older were retrospectively reviewed.

Data on 17,193 individuals including 7803 with diabetes and 9390 with prediabetes were analyzed from 1999-2000 to 2017-2018. A similar non-linear trend in the mean blood pressure (p = .991) and plasma fasting glucose (p = .068) was observed among the population with diabetes and prediabetes. The mean hemoglobin A1c decreased from 7.5% to 7.1% in diabetes and the trend was different from that in prediabetes (p = .004). Among both groups, a significant decline in the mean total cholesterol was identified while there was a difference in the trend (p = .003). The prevalence of hypertension remained largely the same for diabetes and it declined from 59.8% to 48.8% for prediabetes (p = .044). The prevalence of dyslipidemia increased from 40.4% to 53.5% in diabetes and it remained stable for prediabetes. The all-cause mortality decreased from 148.2 to 93.6 per 10,000 person-years between 1999-2006 and 2007-2014 in prediabetes and heart diseases mortality remained unchanged.

In the US from 1999 to 2018, the adults with prediabetes had different secular trends in the mean hemoglobin A1c and the prevalence of hypertension and dyslipidemia compared to those with diabetes. There was a significant reduction in all-cause mortality from 1999 to 2014 for the population with prediabetes. However, heart diseases mortality remained stable among them.