Tracking Carbon Flows from Coal Mines to Electricity Users in China Using an Ensemble Model

Accurately tracking carbon flows is crucial for preventing carbon leakage and allocating responsibility for reducing CO₂eq emissions. In this study, we developed an ensemble model to effectively track carbon flows within China's power system. Our approach integrates coal quality tests, individual power plant datasets, a dynamic material-energy flow analysis model, and an extended version of an interconnected power grid model that incorporates transmission and distribution (T&D) losses. Our results not only provide accurate quantification of unit-based CO₂eq emissions based on coal quality data but also enable the assessment of emissions attributed to T&D losses and emission shifts resulting from interprovincial coal and electricity trade. Remarkably, for CO₂eq emissions from coal-fired units, the disparity between the guideline and our study can be as high as [-95%, 287%]. We identify Guangdong, Hebei, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces as the major importers of both coal and electricity, responsible for transferring nearly half of their user-based emissions to coal and power bases. Significantly, T&D losses, often overlooked, contribute to 15-20% of provincial emissions at the user side. Our findings emphasize the necessity of up-to-date life cycle emissions and spatial carbon shifts in effectively allocating emission reduction responsibilities from the national level to provinces.