Evolutionary safety of lethal mutagenesis driven by antiviral treatment

Gabriela Lobinska1, Yitzhak Pilpel1, Martin A Nowak2

  • 1Department of Molecular Genetics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel.

Plos Biology
|August 8, 2023
PubMed

Insights

Mutagenic antiviral drugs like Molnupiravir may raise evolutionary safety concerns. Mathematical modeling suggests Molnupiravir is narrowly safe, but optimizing treatment and drug design can enhance viral evolution safety.

Area of Science:

  • Virology
  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Computational Biology

Background:

  • Nucleoside analogs are key antiviral agents, with some inducing lethal mutagenesis in viruses.
  • The mutagenic potential of these drugs raises concerns about viral evolution and the generation of resistant mutants.
  • Evolutionary safety is defined as the probabilistic assurance that treatment does not increase the number of viable viral mutants.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a mathematical framework for estimating viral mutant load with and without mutagenic treatments.
  • To assess the evolutionary safety of Molnupiravir, an FDA-approved COVID-19 treatment.
  • To identify factors influencing the rate of viral mutant appearance and propose strategies for improving evolutionary safety.

Main Methods:

  • A mathematical framework was developed to estimate total mutant load.
  • Predictions were made regarding mutant appearance rates based on treatment timing and patient immune competence.
  • The framework was applied to Molnupiravir, using realistic assumptions about viral genome vulnerability and mutant viability.

Main Results:

  • Molnupiravir is estimated to be narrowly evolutionarily safe under current parameter estimates.
  • Treatment timing and patient immune competence significantly influence the rate of mutant appearance.
  • Restricting Molnupiravir use to individuals with lower immune clearance rates can improve evolutionary safety.

Conclusions:

  • Molnupiravir's evolutionary safety is marginal, highlighting the need for careful consideration of its use.
  • Future antiviral drug development should aim for a greater increase in mutation rate to ensure evolutionary safety.
  • A mathematical rule was derived to guide the design of treatments for enhanced evolutionary safety across various pathogens.

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