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Isolation of Fidelity Variants of RNA Viruses and Characterization of Virus Mutation Frequency
Published on: June 16, 2011
Evolutionary safety of lethal mutagenesis driven by antiviral treatment
Gabriela Lobinska1, Yitzhak Pilpel1, Martin A Nowak2
1Department of Molecular Genetics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel.
Abstract:
Nucleoside analogs are a major class of antiviral drugs. Some act by increasing the viral mutation rate causing lethal mutagenesis of the virus. Their mutagenic capacity, however, may lead to an evolutionary safety concern. We define evolutionary safety as a probabilistic assurance that the treatment will not generate an increased number of mutants. We develop a mathematical framework to estimate the total mutant load produced with and without mutagenic treatment. We predict rates of appearance of such virus mutants as a function of the timing of treatment and the immune competence of patients, employing realistic assumptions about the vulnerability of the viral genome and its potential to generate viable mutants. We focus on the case study of Molnupiravir, which is an FDA-approved treatment against Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19). We estimate that Molnupiravir is narrowly evolutionarily safe, subject to the current estimate of parameters. Evolutionary safety can be improved by restricting treatment with this drug to individuals with a low immunological clearance rate and, in future, by designing treatments that lead to a greater increase in mutation rate. We report a simple mathematical rule to determine the fold increase in mutation rate required to obtain evolutionary safety that is also applicable to other pathogen-treatment combinations.
Insights
Mutagenic antiviral drugs like Molnupiravir may raise evolutionary safety concerns. Mathematical modeling suggests Molnupiravir is narrowly safe, but optimizing treatment and drug design can enhance viral evolution safety.
Area of Science:
- Virology
- Evolutionary Biology
- Computational Biology
Background:
- Nucleoside analogs are key antiviral agents, with some inducing lethal mutagenesis in viruses.
- The mutagenic potential of these drugs raises concerns about viral evolution and the generation of resistant mutants.
- Evolutionary safety is defined as the probabilistic assurance that treatment does not increase the number of viable viral mutants.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a mathematical framework for estimating viral mutant load with and without mutagenic treatments.
- To assess the evolutionary safety of Molnupiravir, an FDA-approved COVID-19 treatment.
- To identify factors influencing the rate of viral mutant appearance and propose strategies for improving evolutionary safety.
Main Methods:
- A mathematical framework was developed to estimate total mutant load.
- Predictions were made regarding mutant appearance rates based on treatment timing and patient immune competence.
- The framework was applied to Molnupiravir, using realistic assumptions about viral genome vulnerability and mutant viability.
Main Results:
- Molnupiravir is estimated to be narrowly evolutionarily safe under current parameter estimates.
- Treatment timing and patient immune competence significantly influence the rate of mutant appearance.
- Restricting Molnupiravir use to individuals with lower immune clearance rates can improve evolutionary safety.
Conclusions:
- Molnupiravir's evolutionary safety is marginal, highlighting the need for careful consideration of its use.
- Future antiviral drug development should aim for a greater increase in mutation rate to ensure evolutionary safety.
- A mathematical rule was derived to guide the design of treatments for enhanced evolutionary safety across various pathogens.
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