Subsewershed SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Surveillance and COVID-19 Epidemiology Using Building-Specific Occupancy and Case...

Area of Science:

• Environmental science
• Epidemiology
• Public health

Background:

• Wastewater-based surveillance offers a non-invasive method for monitoring infectious disease trends.
• Integrating occupancy data can refine wastewater epidemiology for localized predictions.
• Understanding SARS-CoV-2 shedding in wastewater is crucial for public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate wastewater-based surveillance for monitoring and predicting SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) trends.
• To assess the utility of building-specific occupancy data in conjunction with wastewater analysis.
• To determine the predictive power of wastewater viral loads for future COVID-19 cases at a subsewershed scale.

Main Methods:

• Collected wastewater samples twice weekly from 17 manholes over the 2020-2021 academic year.
• Utilized reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) and reverse transcription digital droplet polymerase chain reaction (RT-ddPCR) for viral gene analysis.
• Integrated external door swipe card data and student isolation/quarantine status to estimate building-specific occupancy and daily COVID-19 case counts.

Main Results:

• Population-adjusted viral copy means in isolation dormitories were significantly higher than unadjusted means.
• Detection of SARS-CoV-2 N and E genes in wastewater was associated with increased likelihood of COVID-19 cases 8 days later.
• One-log increases in normalized viral copies predicted increases in COVID-19 case likelihood at 5 and 8 days post-collection.

Conclusions:

• Wastewater-based epidemiology, when combined with building-specific occupancy data, can effectively monitor and predict COVID-19 trends.
• The study provides evidence for the potential of wastewater epidemiology to forecast disease dynamics at localized scales.
• This approach can inform public health strategies for managing infectious disease outbreaks.