Fossilization can mislead analyses of phenotypic disparity

Analyses of morphological disparity can incorporate living and fossil taxa to facilitate the exploration of how phenotypic variation changes through time. However, taphonomic processes introduce non-random patterns of data loss in fossil data and their impact on perceptions of disparity is unclear. To address this, we characterize how measures of disparity change when simulated and empirical data are degraded through random and structured data loss. We demonstrate that both types of data loss can distort the disparity of clades, and that the magnitude and direction of these changes varies between the most commonly employed distance metrics and disparity indices. The inclusion of extant taxa and exceptionally preserved fossils mitigates these distortions and clarifies the full extent of the data lost, most of which would otherwise go uncharacterized. This facilitates the use of ancestral state estimation and evolutionary simulations to further control for the effects of data loss. Where the addition of such reference taxa is not possible, we urge caution in the extrapolation of general patterns in disparity from datasets that characterize subsets of phenotype, which may represent no more than the traits that they sample.