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Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution.
Rebecca S L Lovell1, Sinead Collins1, Simon H Martin1
1Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK.
Biological Reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society
|August 9, 2023
Summary
Predicting biodiversity responses to climate change often uses space-for-time substitutions (SFTS). This review finds SFTS methods share limitations in causality and transferability, with key assumptions untested.
Area of Science:
- Ecology and evolutionary biology
- Global change biology
Background:
- Understanding biodiversity responses to rapid environmental change is critical.
- Spatial climate-biotic relationships (space-for-time substitutions, SFTS) are widely used to predict future biotic changes due to climate change.
- SFTS methods have developed in isolation across different ecological subfields.
Conclusions:
- SFTS are valuable but require methodological refinement to address causality and transferability concerns.
- Enhancing SFTS robustness necessitates testing underlying assumptions and fostering interdisciplinary sharing of approaches.
- Improved SFTS methods are crucial for accurately predicting biodiversity responses to climate change.
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