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Feedback thinking in dairy farm management: system dynamics modelling for herd dynamics.

A S Atzori1, B Atamer Balkan1, A Gallo2

  • 1Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Viale Italia 39, 07100 Sassari, Italy; System Dynamics Italian Chapter, Italy.

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Summary

This study introduces systems dynamics modeling for dairy farm management, using feedback thinking to accurately predict milk deliveries and optimize herd composition. The developed model effectively captures farm dynamics and supports informed decision-making.

Keywords:
Feedback loopsHeifersHerd compositionLactating cowsMilk delivery

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Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Science
  • Systems Science
  • Operations Research

Background:

  • Systems perspectives and system dynamics are underutilized in dairy farm management.
  • Effective modeling is crucial for optimizing complex agricultural operations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To demonstrate the application of systems approaches and feedback thinking in dairy farm management modeling.
  • To develop a model for anticipating milk deliveries and supporting herd management decisions.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized causal loop and stock-and-flow diagrams to model dairy farm dynamics.
  • Developed and calibrated a stock-and-flow cattle model using historical farm data (Jan 2016-Dec 2019).
  • Evaluated model accuracy against historical records for lactating cows and milk deliveries.

Main Results:

  • Identified key feedback loops: one balancing (culling) and two reinforcing (heifer replacement, cow pregnancy).
  • The model accurately reproduced historical oscillations in lactating cows (RMSE% 2.8) and milk deliveries (RMSE% 5.2).
  • The model proved valid for predicting long-term milk deliveries and supporting herd management.

Conclusions:

  • Systems dynamics modeling with feedback thinking is effective for dairy farm management.
  • The developed model supports data-driven decision-making for herd composition and milk delivery targets.
  • This approach enhances the understanding and management of complex dairy farm systems.