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Updated: Jul 19, 2025
Patient-derived Orthotopic Xenograft Models for Human Urothelial Cell Carcinoma and Colorectal Cancer Tumor Growth and Spontaneous Metastasis
Published on: May 12, 2019
Development and validation a model for predicting overall survival of bladder cancer with lung metastasis: a
Liang Liu1,2, Fu-Zhen Sun3, Pan-Ying Zhang3
1Department of Urology, Baoding No.1 Central Hospital, No.320 Changcheng North Street, Lianchi District, Baoding, 071000, Hebei, China. mnwkll@163.com.
Background:
Although the number of patients with bladder cancer and lung metastasis is increasing there is no accurate model for predicting survival in these patients.
Methods:
Patients enrolled in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2010 and 2015 were selected for the study. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression were used to determine independent prognostic factors, followed by development of a nomogram based on the multivariate Cox regression models. The consistency index, receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration curve were used to validate the prognostic nomogram.
Results:
506 eligible bladder cancer patients with lung metastasis were enrolled in the study and then divided randomly into training and validation sets (n = 356 vs. n = 150). Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that age at diagnosis, primary site, histological type, surgery of the primary site, chemotherapy, bone metastasis, and liver metastasis were prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) in patients with lung metastasis in the training set. The C-index of the nomogram OS was 0.699 and 0.747 in the training and validation sets, respectively. ROC curve estimation of the nomogram in the training and validation sets showed acceptable accuracy for classifying 1-year survival, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.766 and 0.717, respectively. More importantly, the calibration plot showed the nomogram had favorable predictive accuracy in both the training and validation sets.
Conclusions:
The prognostic nomogram created in our study provides an individualized diagnosis, remedy, and risk evaluation for survival in patients with bladder cancer and lung metastasis. The nomogram would therefore enable clinicians to make more precise treatment decisions for patients with bladder cancer and lung metastasis.
