Association of state-level factors with rate of firearm-related deaths

Over 48,000 people died by firearm in the United States in 2021. Firearm violence has many inciting factors, but the full breadth of associations has not been characterized. We explored several state-level factors including factors not previously studied or insufficiently studied, to determine their association with state firearm-related death rates.

Several state-level factors, including firearm open carry (OC) and concealed carry (CC) laws, state rank, partisan lean, urbanization, poverty rate, anger index, and proportion of college-educated adults, were assessed for association with total firearm-related death rates (TFDR). Secondary outcomes were firearm homicide (FHR) and firearm suicide rates (FSR). Exploratory data analysis with correlation plots and ANOVA was performed. Univariable and multivariable linear regression on the rate of firearm-related deaths was also performed.

All 50 states were included. TFDR and FSR were higher in permitless OC and permitless CC states. FHR did not differ based on OC or CC category. Open carry and CC were eliminated in all three regression models due to a lack of significance. Significant factors for each model were: 1) TFDR - partisan lean, urbanization, poverty rate, and state ranking; 2) FHR - poverty rate; 3) FSR - partisan lean and urbanization.

Neither open nor concealed carry is associated with firearm-related death rates when socioeconomic factors are concurrently considered. Factors associated with firearm homicide and suicide differ and will likely require separate interventions to reduce firearm-related deaths.

Neither open carry nor concealed carry law are associated with total firearm-related death rate, but poverty rate, urbanization, partisan lean, and state ranking are associated. When analyzing firearm homicide and suicide rates separately, poverty rate is strongly associated with firearm homicide rate, while urbanization and partisan lean are associated with firearm suicide rate.