Building carbon peak scenario prediction in China using system dynamics model

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Change Research
• Sustainable Development

Background:

• Global climate change necessitates urgent action on carbon emissions.
• China's building sector contributes significantly, around 50%, to national carbon emissions.
• Understanding building carbon peak timing and magnitude is critical for policy development.

Purpose of the Study:

• To predict the timing and value of China's building carbon peak.
• To analyze various development scenarios' impact on building carbon emissions.
• To inform strategies for achieving China's carbon peak goals.

Main Methods:

• System dynamics modeling for complex system simulation.
• Logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) for factor decomposition.
• Monte Carlo simulation for probabilistic forecasting.

Main Results:

• Under baseline, building carbon emissions peak at 5,427 million tons in 2027.
• Different scenarios show peaks ranging from 2027 to 2032, with values between 5,427 and 6,329 million tons.
• Comprehensive simulation indicates a 2030 peak probability of 80% for 5,729-6,171 million tons.

Conclusions:

• China's building carbon emissions are projected to peak around 2030.
• Scenario analysis highlights the influence of development pathways on emission trajectories.
• Findings support targeted policies for sustainable building development to meet climate goals.