Serological evaluation of risk factors for exposure to malaria in a pre-elimination setting in Malaysian Borneo

Malaysia has reported no indigenous cases of P. falciparum and P. vivax for over 3 years. When transmission reaches such low levels, it is important to understand the individuals and locations where exposure risks are high, as they may be at greater risk in the case of a resurgence of transmission. Serology is a useful tool in low transmission settings, providing insight into exposure over longer durations than PCR or RDT. We ran blood samples from a 2015 population-based survey in northern Sabah, Malaysian Borneo on a multiplex bead assay. Using supervised machine learning methods, we characterised recent and historic exposure to Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax and found recent exposure to P. falciparum to be very low, with exposure to both species increasing with age. We performed a risk-factor assessment on environmental, behavioural, demographic and household factors, and identified forest activity and longer travel times to healthcare as common risk-factors for exposure to P. falciparum and P. vivax. In addition, we used remote-sensing derived data and geostatistical models to assess environmental and spatial associations with exposure. We created predictive maps of exposure to recent P. falciparum in the study area and showed 3 clear foci of exposure. This study provides useful insight into the environmental, spatial and demographic risk factors for P. falciparum and P. vivax at a period of low transmission in Malaysian Borneo. The findings would be valuable in the case of resurgence of human malarias in the region.