An Updated Analysis of the Impact of HPV Vaccination Based on Long-term Effectiveness in the Netherlands

Vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) is considered the most effective strategy to protect women from cervical cancer. Three HPV vaccines are currently licensed in Europe and, although they are generally supported by favorable health economic outcomes, current models fall short in predicting vaccination benefits. Here, we aim to re-evaluate the health benefits of HPV vaccination, using updated long-term effectiveness data and emphasizing quality of life losses related to pre-cancer disease and treatment.

We used a static Markov model that compared "only screening" (includes unvaccinated girls) and "vaccination" (assumes 100% vaccination coverage with the bivalent HPV vaccine). A lifetime cohort of 100,000 uninfected 12-year-old girls was included, in which the number of cases with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or higher/3 (CIN2+, CIN3), cervical cancer, and cervical cancer deaths per scenario were determined. Furthermore, the reduction in major excisional procedures, the preterm deliveries averted, and the related gain in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) due to vaccination were estimated.

The bivalent vaccine showed larger reductions in CIN2+, CIN3, cervical cancer cases, cervical cancer deaths, and major excisional treatments, after including long-term efficacy and effectiveness data, compared to previous data. Moreover, we observed an increased amount of QALYs gained due to prevention of major excisional treatment and the negative side effects related to it.

Updated health economic models for HPV vaccination, using updated and long-term effectiveness data and including prevention of treatment-related side effects, demonstrate a substantial additional positive effect on vaccination outcomes. Indeed, extrapolation of the bivalent HPV vaccine's updated long-term effectiveness data against HPV-related cervical diseases shows that the positive effects of vaccination may be more substantial than previously estimated. There is a graphical abstract available for this article.