Machine Learning in Antibody Diagnostics for Inflammatory Bowel Disease Subtype Classification

Antibody testing in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) can add to diagnostic accuracy of the main subtypes Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Whether modern modeling techniques such as supervised and unsupervised machine learning are of value for finer distinction of subtypes such as IBD-unclassified (IBD-U) is not known. We determined the antibody profile of 100 adult IBD patients from the Swiss IBD cohort study with known subtype (50 CD, 50 UC) as well as of 76 IBD-U patients. We included ASCA IgG and IgA, p-ANCA, MPO- and PR3-ANCA, and xANCA measurements for computing different antibody panels as well as machine learning models. The AUC of an optimized antibody panel was 85% (95%CI, 78-92%) to distinguish CD from UC patients. The antibody profile of IBD-U patients was closely related to UC. No specific antibody profile was predictive for IBD-U nor for re-classification. The panel diagnostic was in favor of UC reclassification prediction with a correct assignment rate of 69.2-73.1% depending on the cut-off applied. Supervised machine learning could not distinguish between CD, UC, and IBD-U. More so, unsupervised machine learning suggested only two distinct clusters as a likely number of IBD subtypes. Antibodies in IBD are supportive in confirming clinical determined subtypes CD and UC but have limited capacity to predict IBD-U and reclassification during follow-up. In terms of antibody profiles, IBD-U is not a distinct subtype of IBD.