NOx Emissions Control Area (NECA) scenario for ports in the North Adriatic Sea

In response to global warming, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) set rules of 50% Greenhouse Gas (GHG) reduction by 2050, from 2008 levels. Signatory countries to the IMO's regulation require frequent assessment of the contribution of GHG emissions from shipping calling at their ports or trading in their territorial waters to ensure their compliance with the regulations. This demands a rapid and accurate method to assess shipping's contribution to GHG emissions. Current methodologies for estimating emissions from ships can be described on a scale between bottom-up and top-down methods. Top-down methods provide rapid estimates - primarily based on fuel sales reports - without considering individual vessel details. Therefore, they are less accurate and do not provide a breakdown of emissions by ship types or in specific regions. Bottom-up methodologies are detailed vessel-based estimates; however, they are data and time-demanding. The Ship Emissions Assessment method (SEA) (Topic et al., 2021) fills the gap between bottom-up and top-down methods by providing an innovative hybrid solution for rapid but accurate ship emission estimation. It uses publicly available, cost-effective data sets for emission estimates. The SEA method is capable of estimating ships' emissions in designated areas to understand regulations' effectiveness and provide emission quantification evidence. This research objective was to apply the SEA method to quantify CO₂, SO_X and NO_X exhaust emissions from containerships for the three crucial containership ports: Trieste, Rijeka and Venice, in the North of the Adriatic Sea. The SEA methodology was applied to assess emissions and forecast efficiency in scenarios of different regulatory measures. A reduction in NOx emissions was estimated for the event of the implementation of NECA in all three ports. Results showed that 447.13 tonnes of NOx could be reduced each year in the North Adriatic Sea area around the ports of Rijeka, Trieste and Venice in the event that NECA regulations are stipulated.