A Note on Excess Mortality Attributable to COVID-19 in the United States

Annual influenza outbreaks constitute a major public health concern in the United States. But this health burden appears dwarfed by the impact of COVID-19. Our aim is to quantify the excess mortality attributable to COVID-19, compared to previous influenza seasons.

We retrospectively compare weekly mortality figures attributable to influenza and pneumonia in the United States from 2013 to 2019 with corresponding figures attributable to influenza, pneumonia, and COVID-19 from 2019 to 2021. We utilize a difference in differences regression methodology to estimate excess mortality observed in 2019-21 compared to 2013-2019.

Mortality patterns attributable to influenza, pneumonia, and COVID-19 differ significantly from the 2013-19 experience. Notably, distinct, aperiodic mortality waves occur in the 2019-2021 window, and mortality is well in excess of what is observed in typical influenza seasons.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to considerable excess mortality in the United States, and has strained public health resources. One might expect that the mortality waves observed during the pandemic will be damped by increasing levels of vaccination, and prior infections.